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Abstract

This paper examines the escalation of military expenditures in Europe in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, through the lens of the security dilemma. The security dilemma, a fundamental concept in international relations, describes how the defensive actions of one state can provoke perceptions of threat among others, potentially leading to an arms race. By analyzing military spending data from 2019 to 2023 for key European countries including Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Azerbaijan, Russia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, this study highlights how nations closest to the conflict, such as Poland and the Baltic states (Estonia and Latvia), have significantly increased their defense budgets in reaction to perceived immediate threats. These increases are mirrored, albeit to a lesser extent, by major Western European powers and other countries in the region, reflecting a continent-wide trend in military buildup. The findings suggest that while these increases are primarily defensive in nature, they carry the risk of being misinterpreted as offensive postures by neighboring countries, thereby exacerbating the security dilemma. This paper argues for the necessity of enhanced diplomatic efforts to mitigate these risks. It advocates for the establishment of mechanisms that foster clear dialogue and mutual understanding to ensure that military enhancements contribute positively to regional stability rather than escalating tensions. Through the security dilemma, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of how European nations can navigate the complexities of increased military spending and regional security in turbulent times.

Bahasa Abstract

Makalah ini mengkaji peningkatan pengeluaran militer di Eropa sebagai respons terhadap konflik yang sedang berlangsung antara Rusia dan Ukraina, melalui lensa dilema keamanan. Dilema keamanan, sebuah konsep fundamental dalam hubungan internasional, menggambarkan bagaimana tindakan defensif dari satu negara dapat memicu persepsi ancaman di antara negara lain, yang berpotensi memicu perlombaan senjata. Dengan menganalisis data pengeluaran militer dari tahun 2019 hingga 2023 untuk negara-negara Eropa kunci termasuk Estonia, Latvia, Polandia, Azerbaijan, Rusia, Finlandia, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, dan Inggris, baik dalam istilah absolut maupun sebagai persentase dari PDB, studi ini menyoroti bagaimana negara-negara yang paling dekat dengan konflik, seperti Polandia dan negara-negara Baltik (Estonia dan Latvia), telah secara signifikan meningkatkan anggaran pertahanan mereka sebagai reaksi terhadap ancaman langsung yang dirasakan. Peningkatan ini tercermin, meskipun dalam skala yang lebih kecil, oleh kekuatan utama Eropa Barat dan negara-negara lain di wilayah tersebut, yang mencerminkan tren peningkatan militer di seluruh benua. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa meskipun peningkatan ini bersifat defensif, mereka membawa risiko disalahartikan sebagai sikap ofensif oleh negara-negara tetangga, sehingga memperburuk dilema keamanan. Makalah ini berargumen tentang perlunya upaya diplomatik yang ditingkatkan untuk mengurangi risiko ini. Ia menganjurkan pembentukan mekanisme yang mendorong dialog yang jelas dan saling pengertian untuk memastikan bahwa peningkatan militer berkontribusi positif terhadap stabilitas regional daripada meningkatkan ketegangan. Melalui dilema keamanan, studi ini memberikan kontribusi untuk pemahaman yang lebih mendalam tentang bagaimana negara-negara Eropa dapat menavigasi kompleksitas peningkatan pengeluaran militer dan keamanan regional di masa-masa yang penuh gejolak.

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