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Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

This study aims to see whether appreciation and depreciation have asymmetric impact on Indonesia's industrial exports and which impact is greater. The researcher uses disaggregated panel of Indonesian industrial product export HS Code 10 digit level with all partner country of export. Acquired domestic appreciation has a negative impact and depreciation has a positive impact on exports, where the impact is both asymmetric. The negative impact of appreciation is greater than the positive impact of depreciation. While domestic appreciation, export demand is more elastic due to competition in international markets which makes other countries turn to domestic products in their destination countries or even import goods from other countries and export supply less elastic or less elasticity due to avoiding risk due to reduced export demand even though the price of imported goods is cheaper. Meanwhile, when the depreciation due to competition in the international market resulted in an increase in elasticity of export demand is smaller than when domestic appreciation occurs. In addition, the export supply become more elastic as the industry sees imported goods becoming more expensive which can increase production costs.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan melihat apakah apresiasi dan depresiasi berdampak asimetris terhadap ekspor industri Indonesia dan dampak manakah yang lebih besar. Peneliti menggunakan panel disagregat ekspor produk industri Indonesia level kode HS 10 digit dengan seluruh negara partner ekspor. Diperoleh apresiasi domestik berdampak negatif dan depresiasi berdampak positif terhadap ekspor, dimana dampak keduanya asimetris. Dampak negatif apresiasi lebih besar daripada dampak positif depresiasinya. Ketika apresiasi domestik permintaan ekspornya lebih elastis karena adanya persaingan di pasar internasional yang membuat negara lain beralih ke produk domestik di negara tujuan mereka atau bahkan mengimpor barang dari negara lain dan penawarannya kurang elastis atau elastisitasnya lebih kecil karena upaya menghindari risiko akibat permintaan ekspor yang berkurang meskipun harga barang impor lebih murah. Sedangkan ketika depresiasi karena persaingan di pasar internasional mengakibatkan elastisitas peningkatan permintaan ekspornya lebih kecil dibandingkan ketika terjadi apresiasi domestik. Selain itu, penawaran ekspornya menjadi lebih elastis karena industri melihat barang impor menjadi lebih mahal yang dapat meningkatkan biaya produksi.

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