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Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

Penelitian ini akan menjelaskan pengaruh dan pentingnya mata uang Negara mitra dagang utama Indonesia dalam keranjang mata uang rupiah dan terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah setelah krisis 1997–1998 sebelum dan sesudah China menjadi mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data mingguan dari tahun 1999 sampai maret 2016. Penelitian ini berdasarkan model Turnovsky (1982). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah pada periode sebelum China menjadi mitra dagang utama Indonesia US dollar masih mendominasi dalam mempengaruhi pergerakan mata uang dalam keranjang rupiah dengan bobot yang besar. Sedangkan pada periode China menjadi mitra dagang utama Indonesia yaitu pada saat ACFTA baru diterapkan, dengan menggunakan dasar mata uang Australian dollar peran yuan mengalami peningkatan bahkan melebihi US dollar dalam mempengaruhi pergerakan mata uang dalam keranjang rupiah. Sedangkan dengan menggunakan dasar mata uang Swiss franc dan New Zealand dollar, US dollar masih mendominasi dalam mempengaruhi pergerakan mata uang di keranjang rupiah. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa US dollar dan yuan sama–sama berpengaruh kuat dalam mempengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah dan keranjang rupiah.

Bahasa Abstract

In this study, we will examine the effect of currency and weight Indonesia’s major trading partners on the rupiah movement after Asian crisis before and after China became a major trad- ing partner of Indonesia. Weekly data of exchange rate from 1999 to March 2016 are used. This study will based on model of Turnovsky (1982). As a result, we found that before China became a major trading partner of Indonesia, US dollar was dominant to influence currency movement in rupiah basket with greater proportion than other currencies of Indonesia’s major trading part- ners. On the other hand, in periode after China became a major trading partner of Indonesia, yuan increase its role in rupiah movement and have dominant effect to influence currencies movement in rupiah basket. But with use New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc as base currency, US dollar stillshows dominance effect to currency movemen in rupiah basket, but shortly fol- lowed by Chinese Yuan. This suggests that US dollar and Chinese yuan have the strongest effect on rupiah movement.

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