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Abstract

Indonesia has initiated trade liberalization to boost the coffee export performance in the international market through trade agreements (FTA). However, Indonesian coffee export performance tends to decline. This study aims to analyze the effect of Indonesia’s FTA with its trading partners and other determinants of Indonesian coffee exports. This research employs a modified export approach gravity model with PPML estimation. The result shows that the FTA implementation generally can promote Indonesian coffee export, implying the export creation effect. Therefore, inward and outward-looking strategies are necessary to further boost the export creation effect on Indonesian coffee.

Bahasa Abstract

Indonesia telah menginisiasi liberalisasi perdagangan untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspor kopi di pasar internasional melalui kerja sama perdagangan (FTA). Namun, kinerja ekspor kopi Indonesia justru menurun. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh FTA Indonesia dengan negara tujuan serta determinan ekspor kopi lainnya. Penelitian ini menggunakan modifikasi model gravitasi pada pendekatan ekspor dengan estimasi PPML. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa implementasi FTA secara umum mampu mendorong ekspor kopi Indonesia ke negara anggota FTA sehingga mengindikasikan efek penciptaan ekspor. Oleh karena itu, strategi inward dan outward looking diperlukan untuk mendorong efek penciptaan ekspor kopi Indonesia secara lebih lanjut.

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